New Business vs. Business as Usual
The spotlight returned to the 2008 Presidential race this week as Senator Obama made speeches in several different states and Senator Evan Bayh, assumed to be a contender, officially declined to run.
Pundits framed the potential candidacies of Obama and Hilary Clinton as "New Ideas vs Old Ideas", which may be true. But a similar line of thinking works with the putative Republican frontrunners, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain.
McCain is coming to represent business as usual, while Rudy represents a new direction for the GOP, one less focused on curbing social liberties and more focused on competent stewardship--"New Business vs Business as Usual". The catastrophic failures and ineptitude of the Bush Administration will give candidates like John McCain a tough time.
Though posing as a Maverick, McCain has rarely broken step with the President, and his support of a troop surge in Iraq may doom his candidacy before it ever gets off the ground. By sending more troops to stem a brutal civil war (apparently against the advice of the Joint Chiefs), Bush might as well be putting the military and treasury on the roulette table and betting it all on the number thirteen. His chances of success are virtually none, while his chances of compounding tragedy are high.
A former Democrat, Liberal Republican Giuliani is a candidate that Democrats uneasy with Hilary Clinton can embrace. Unlike ultra-conservative McCain, Giuliani won't be tainted by the mistakes of the Bush team, and won't be swayed by religious fanatics on the ultra-right fringe, the same fanatics McCain once denounced but now embraces.
Keep in mind that many Republicans despise McCain, and consider him untrustworthy. His nomination is anything but certain. At this early stage, I suspect Republicans understand that McCain may not be electable, and may overlook Rudy's social policies and support him in numbers large enough to overcome McCain.
If so, Hilary would be in trouble. But then, frontrunners are vulnerable and Hilary has Obama, Edwards, Gore and others to contend with. No matter how much Democratic voters like her, if they feel she is unelectable they won't support her, either. The stakes in 2008 are too high.
Happy Holidays!
- JT Compton